Small push long and then retrace

Just like the title says. I think it could push to 1.5030 and then significantly retrace the long move that began at 1.4800. After those moves, it will make a new high. Too tired to post a chart

Critical Juncture

I know in my last post I said I would not try and call retraces and so I won't. I do want you to be aware that it is highly probable that wave (iv) on the daily is not over as I had previously labled but merly in the b wave portion. The probably of a significant retrace of several hundred pips or more is possible. I expect it to make one more push short, possibly below 1.4780, and then potentially turn long to make the c wave of (iv). In todays posting I have included my oscillators. There is very clear divergance. This is a strong warning signal of a trend reversal.  Ultimately the trend WILL remain short but it could be weeks before the resumption of that trend.

Another View

Here is a day chart to go with the last post for additional perspective.

Lesson Learned

I was thinking we were going to get a pop long last night before the short resumed. No dice. The lesson is that in a fast moving bear market one should not look too hard for text book or "normal" retracements. The C wave of ii was truncated and then wave iii began. If you have been following this blog you know that I have been calling the major trend short since the begining. The short trend has quite a way to go yet. I won't try and call retracement points. I am simply going to let you know when I think they are over. When I think the dominate short trend is over, only then will I discuss it. A 300 min chart is attched for some perspective. The trend remains short.

Going Long

The trend should be long tonight. It should move up into the 1.5180 to 1.5220 range before it resumes the predominently short trend. No chart. I've had a long day!

A or ii

The short has confirmed and we are in wave ii of the (v) wave short that should end somewhere near 1.4320. Currently we have 3 waves long. This is either wave .A of ii or wave ii is complete. I favor the former scenario. In this case, we should have another down up movement before wave ii is over and the short resumes. This event could take another day or so. Either way, this is a great place to get in short and hold till wave iii is complete. See chart below.

Short

The point was broken and the short seems to be the trend. A break of 1.4870 should seal the deal. Once that is breached a run down to 1.4320 is possible. Of course along the way there will be significant retraces.

Not Sure?

My current count has the pair continuing long. 1.49763 is a critical point at the moment and it is extremely close to breaking it. I  am waiting to see if this point is broken. If it does not break then my current count will remain valid. Once I feel I have a strong handle on it I will make another post along with a chart. A break of 1.49763 does not necessarily invalidate a long move I will just have to reassess my current count. I will make another post as soon as the movement warrants it.

Day chart label correction

Based on last nights movement, a relabeling of he day chart is required. The beauty of wave theory is, soemtimes, even when you are wrong you can turn out right. It is looking like (iii) was completed on Mar. 1st as a 9 wave motive wave. This is a motive wave with an undefined extension. Now we are in the (iv) wave correction which should turn out to be a flat. I believe we are very near the a wave completion of that (iv) wave. Since a wave was a 3 wave movement, I would expect the b wave to be a flat or a triangle. A flat is the highest probability. and expanded flat is the highest. this scenario would have price making a new low below 1.4780 before moving long again. We will just have to wait and see. The bottom line is we will likely be trading in the 1.5300 to 1.4700 range for weeks to come.

Quick Update

Contrary to my previous post, now that the movement has matured, I have a count that could have the short correction complete at 1.5086. This is a spot, that if correct, adhered very well to my post of 3/10 predicting a retrace to 1.5080. I can count 5 waves down on a 5 minute chart begining at 15:10. We will just have to wait and see. Im in heavy and riding to 1.4870. Yeehaa!

A little more long

Looks to me like it is going to correct a little longer than I thought. I am now projecting the retrace will perhaps push as long as 1.5120. It looks like the current move long is turning into a triple zigzag. None of this changes the outlook of another low below 1.4780. It will likely take a while to get there. Perhaps a week or more.  The below chart details the long correction that will make up a larger second wave of this ending diagonal that will end up being wave (5) of 3(circle) on the daily chart.

Short still on track

I know it is tracing long right now but the short is still the trend. I expect it to continue moving up until at least 1.5020 but more likely to 1.5080 and then resume short below 1.4780. From there I would expect another retrace long above 1.4870 before pushing down one last time to a new low.  The attached chart should give an idea what I am talking about.

Quick update

I believe themovement since 2 am today is very corrective. I expect the short to resume without much more retrace in the long direction. I would expect 1.5030 would be the limit of the move up. From there the short should resume. At the moment the correction looks like a flat or may morph into a double three correction. I will post a count when it is over. I am still lookigfor it to mvoe below 1.4780 at a minimum.

Push Short and then bigger correction sideways to long

Looks like the call from my last post hit perfectly. Now I expect the GBP to at least make a new low. From there it could go into a sideways to long movement that could last two weeks. During that period I would be looking to sell tops and ride them down until they look exhausted and then do it all over again. I will try and identify when the current short is done and the structure of the bigger fourth wave correctioni as it unfolds. Here is a day chart for now.

Triple Zigzag

That is what I believe the correction is morphing into. If that is the case the below labeling should be correct. I would expect the stopping zone for the long move to be between  1.51881 and 1.52668. I would try and tighten this up as the correction matures. Please keep in mind that 3 zigzags are the most allowed under wave theory. So once this last zigzag is complete it cannot become more complex and keep correcting. It will make a new low below 1.4780. Great place to take a postion short. Very high probablility trade.

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No Drastic Change

Although the pair is pushing up higher than I anticipated, it still has the chareteristics of a flat/zigzag double correction. I think it is likely that the move could continue up as far as 1.5200 before resuming the short. Here is my current labeling (by the way, I know that the degrees labeling is not necessarly correct but that is a small issue. If you understand wave principal this should not a big deal)

Its not a triangle

So, the next likely scenario would be a double 3 correction. More specifically a flat to a zigzag. I think a good stopping area for this formation will be about 1.5080. And then I still expect it to make a new low.

Triangle Forming

Looks like a triangle is forming on the 34 min chart. This is consistent with my last post that there will be one more push short before wave .iii is finished on the daily chart. The movement will make a new low below 1.4780 and likely hit 1.4716. It is not possible to tell right now if the triangle is complete or if it has simply finished a complex c wave. Time will tell. Either it does not change the outlook. Once the move is finished I would expect a rapid retrace long to 1.5574. More on that once the low is in place.

Im Back

First a quick appology. I went on a getaway and that is why there have not been any updates. I'm back now and here is where I think we are. I think wave .iii on the daily chart is nearly over. The trend has been short since Aug 17th. I think the GBP will make one more new low before wave .iii ends. I think it may have the potential to go as low as 1.4716 before wave .iii is over. Once that is achieved I am looking for a prolonged sidesways movement that will retrace about 38% of the short move from Jan 19th. a daily chart is attached.