Great Short Oppotunity

The short trend is in place from the April 15th high. We are currently in wave 2 of the larger five. I believe the short will resume shortly after the rise breaks 1.5373 . That is a great spot to go short and ride it to below 1.4780. These are the high probablility wave forms I love.

Short

The long retrace is over and now I expect a move below 1.4780. I'm not feeling well. I'll try and get around to posting a chart.

A little more long

I have been tracking the subdivisions of this fifth and final wave long. I believe we are still in the 3rd wave of the ending 5th. I will try and announce when I think the wave has ended but it should be soon. Meaning within the next 24 hours or so. I will try and post a chart when I believe the lesser third of this fifth wave is complete.  The coming short move should take us below 1.4780 at a minimum.

Tricky

The market is it's own master. As an analyst it is a good trait to give up quickly on a count when the evidence is staring you in the face. I thought we were getting smaller degree first and second waves for a down run but now it is apparent that the formation that began 4/5/10 at 8am is a triangle. You can see it very clearly on a 60 min chart. I am posting a 5hr chart to give a little more perspective. I think the triangle is completing a 2nd X wave for the entire pattern that began on March 1st. We should have another 5/3/5 wave count in the long direction that will most likely complete the pattern. This could take many days to play out.

Short

Based on the latest developments in the wave structure, I believe that wave (iv) is over and that the recent volatility in the GBP is the first series of larger then smaller first and second waves. Odds favor that the Pound should make a new low below  1.4780 now. Chart of the developing short is below.

Last Push Long

Well it did not retrace as deep as I thought it would but it is making the ending diagonal. Looks like it is goingto be shallower on both ends then I thought. I am looking for the GBP to make a new high above 1.5319 and then resume the short move.

Modification to Short resumption post

Even though the market turned to go short when I predicted, I now believe the long has a little further to go. A detailed analysis of the long leg that began on 3/25 and ended on 4/1 is simply the first leg of what will end up being an ending diagonal. Diagonals are 5 waves. So the current short will probably come down to about 1.5080 (but possibly deeper) and then the long will resume to push above 1.5297. That will be the third leg. I do not believe it will be a strong swift move long. It will look like a zigzag as that is exactly what each leg of an ending diagonal is. I have posted two charts the first labels wave 1 up and the second is an approximation of the ending diagonal.

Short resumption

As you can see from my last chart, it made the retrace I was expecting. I think the long retrace is just about over. Now the short should resume soon to make the next leg down that should take us beneath 1.4780 and perhaps a good bit further. This coming short wave may be as long as a 1046 pips. Targets are the trend line or equality as represented by the horizontal line at 1.4248