Many infamous authoritarian regimes emerged during or after big bear markets
By Elliott Wave International
Fear and uncertainty that drive a severe bear market are the same emotions which can set the stage for authoritarianism, in most any nation.
"Bear markets of sufficient size appear to bring about a desire to slaughter groups of successful people. In 1793-1794, radical Frenchmen guillotined countless members of high society. In the 1930s, Stalin slaughtered Ukrainians. In the 1940s, Nazis slaughtered Jews. In the 1970s, Communists in Cambodia and China slaughtered the affluent. In 1998, after their country's financial collapse, Indonesians went on a rampage and slaughtered Chinese merchants." - Bob Prechter, Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, p. 270
Why do authoritarian tendencies emerge only during bear markets in stocks?
"As society becomes more fearful, many individuals yearn for the safety and order promised by strong, controlling leaders." - The Socionomist, May 2010
Learn How to Anticipate and Prepare for Political Conflict and War, Bull Markets and Bear Markets. The 118-page Independent Investor eBook covers a vast array of investment topics and exposes myths that mainstream investors accept as fact. Once you learn the real cause of conflict and war, you might be surprised how the stock market plays a key role in forecasting major social events. Click here to download the 118-page Independent Investor eBook for FREE
Bob Prechter's new science of socionomics explains that stock market fluctuations mirror trends in people's collective mood. In simple terms, when the market is buoyant, it indicates positive social mood; the opposite when a bear market takes over.
The fascinating part is that because the stock market and social mood trend closely together, a forecaster can apply Elliott wave analysis to both -- and predict both.
Generally, widespread brutalities and wars do not follow the first phase of a bear market. Extreme violence, when it does occur, often follows the worst part of the market's downturn -- like the end of the Great Depression, a negative social mood period that ultimately ushered in World War II.
But even during the first phase, a negative social mood grows. So, if a forecaster determines correctly where in the wave structure social mood resides, he can make educated forecasts about what will follow in society -- given what has happened before under similar social mood trends.
Authoritarianism is a subject of heated discussions these days, which makes it a timely topic for a socionomic study. The latest, two-part issue of the monthly Socionomist gives you just that: A look at historic trends and specific forecasts for the years ahead.
Learn How to Anticipate and Prepare for Political Conflict and War, Bull Markets and Bear Markets. The 118-page Independent Investor eBook covers a vast array of investment topics and exposes myths that mainstream investors accept as fact. Once you learn the real cause of conflict and war, you might be surprised how the stock market plays a key role in forecasting major social events. Click here to download the 118-page Independent Investor eBook for FREE
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Prechter Called the Uptrend 'Out' in April
By Elliott Wave International
Even non-sports fans have heard by now about the recent debacle known as Baseballgate.
With two outs in the ninth inning, a first-base umpire called "SAFE" when the runner was clearly "OUT." But this was no ordinary missed call; it cost Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga a perfect game.
And as the blogosphere flooded with memories of other historic slip-ups that cost "so and so" star "this and that" honor. Demands for the commissioner of baseball to reverse the bad call grew louder by the hour.
It was indeed a very bad call. But the biggest, baddest call of all was not made on a sports field. It was made in the field of finance -- specifically on the stock market. To wit: The mainstream umpires of finance stood near first base, and in April made this emphatic call for the uptrend in stocks:
"SAFE!!"
Call Your Own Shots -- Remove Dangerous Mainstream Assumptions from Your Investment Process. Elliott Wave International's FREE, 118-page Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Click here to learn more and download your free, 118-page ebook.
In case you missed the event, here's an instant replay:
"Stocks Remain In A Powerful Bull Market." (April 10 Bloomberg)
"Stocks Haven't Lost Their Appeal As The Market Goes Up, Up, And Away." (April 21 US News & World Report)
"You can use any number of words to describe this bull market. Frothy is not one of them. This market is reasonably priced." (April 21 AP)
"US Stocks Post Longest Winning Streak Since 2004. The recovery should be sustainable and that will drive the market." (April 24 Bloomberg)
"All the economic reports are pointing up... despite lingering worries over debt problems in Greece. Right now, there is virtually no evidence of a top." (April 30 USA Today)
Yet from its April 26 peak, the DJIA turned down in a jaw-dropping 1000-plus point selloff. The market suffered its worst May since 1940.
The markets have no commissioner to reverse the bad call of the financial mainstream. But at least one team of analysts remained ahead of the most game-changing moves in the world's leading stock market, including a forecast that called the rally "OUT" in April 2010. Consider the following insight from EWI President Robert Prechter:
On April 16, Prechter published his April Elliott Wave Theorist titled ""Deadly Bearish Picture." Notice the dates.
"We can project a top...between April 15 and May 7, 2010. It is rare to have technical indicators all lined up on one side of the ledger. They were lined up this way -- on the bullish side -- in late February-early March of 2009. Today, they are just as aligned, but on the bearish side."
April 26 marks the high for the DJIA, followed by the devastating drop on May 7 -- exactly within the date range Prechter's forecast called for.
Call Your Own Shots -- Remove Dangerous Mainstream Assumptions from Your Investment Process. Elliott Wave International's FREE, 118-page Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Click here to learn more and download your free, 118-page ebook.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Even non-sports fans have heard by now about the recent debacle known as Baseballgate.
With two outs in the ninth inning, a first-base umpire called "SAFE" when the runner was clearly "OUT." But this was no ordinary missed call; it cost Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga a perfect game.
And as the blogosphere flooded with memories of other historic slip-ups that cost "so and so" star "this and that" honor. Demands for the commissioner of baseball to reverse the bad call grew louder by the hour.
It was indeed a very bad call. But the biggest, baddest call of all was not made on a sports field. It was made in the field of finance -- specifically on the stock market. To wit: The mainstream umpires of finance stood near first base, and in April made this emphatic call for the uptrend in stocks:
"SAFE!!"
Call Your Own Shots -- Remove Dangerous Mainstream Assumptions from Your Investment Process. Elliott Wave International's FREE, 118-page Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Click here to learn more and download your free, 118-page ebook.
In case you missed the event, here's an instant replay:
"Stocks Remain In A Powerful Bull Market." (April 10 Bloomberg)
"Stocks Haven't Lost Their Appeal As The Market Goes Up, Up, And Away." (April 21 US News & World Report)
"You can use any number of words to describe this bull market. Frothy is not one of them. This market is reasonably priced." (April 21 AP)
"US Stocks Post Longest Winning Streak Since 2004. The recovery should be sustainable and that will drive the market." (April 24 Bloomberg)
"All the economic reports are pointing up... despite lingering worries over debt problems in Greece. Right now, there is virtually no evidence of a top." (April 30 USA Today)
Yet from its April 26 peak, the DJIA turned down in a jaw-dropping 1000-plus point selloff. The market suffered its worst May since 1940.
The markets have no commissioner to reverse the bad call of the financial mainstream. But at least one team of analysts remained ahead of the most game-changing moves in the world's leading stock market, including a forecast that called the rally "OUT" in April 2010. Consider the following insight from EWI President Robert Prechter:
On April 16, Prechter published his April Elliott Wave Theorist titled ""Deadly Bearish Picture." Notice the dates.
"We can project a top...between April 15 and May 7, 2010. It is rare to have technical indicators all lined up on one side of the ledger. They were lined up this way -- on the bullish side -- in late February-early March of 2009. Today, they are just as aligned, but on the bearish side."
April 26 marks the high for the DJIA, followed by the devastating drop on May 7 -- exactly within the date range Prechter's forecast called for.
Call Your Own Shots -- Remove Dangerous Mainstream Assumptions from Your Investment Process. Elliott Wave International's FREE, 118-page Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Click here to learn more and download your free, 118-page ebook.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)