Short Term Trade

The below 30 min chart shows what I believe the short term movemnt will be over the next few hours to a day or so. If it didn't do it during the off hours the GBP will move long to break 1.6235 once it has completed that long movement it will move short to the 1.6080 to 1.6020 zone. That should be the first leg of a flat or triangle that will likely take a while to play out. The movement will be essentiall sideways within a 100 or so pip channel. Once complete the long trend should resume. If this scenario plays out or changes I will make a post as soon as identify material changes

There is an alternate possibilty to this scenario. The point I have labled as 3 may actually be 5 and then only the second half of the above analysis will play out, i.e the retrace short that turns into a sideways movement before heading long again.