Forget the Daily Triangle

Well, the evidence is becoming overwhelming that the triangle formation, on the daily chart from Aug., I have been holding on to is not going to play out. It is better to admit an error than to continue to hold on to it. In that light, I believe the markings on the below chart are most likely accurate. I think we are completing a minute degree first wave. This means there is likely to be a retrace. With the strength that the dollar is displaying it is possible that the retrace won't be that deep perhaps only 38.2% of the move down from Nov 09. That point would be 1.6166. I really don't think it will be any deeper than 1.6437 which is a 61.8% retrace. At this point, I would fear long trades and only be looking for bottoms to take profit and retraces to get back in short. Once 1.5706 is breached there is not doubt that the short is on like Donkey Kong. Going forward over the next many months I would expect the GBP to approach Par.